With the Pirates' ace, Paul Skenes, on a losing streak that's approaching historic proportions, the focus shifts to his upcoming match against the Braves. Skenes, who has been winless in nine starts since May 12, is in the midst of his worst stretch in the MLB. This drought is tied for the second-longest by a reigning Cy Young Award winner, just one behind Blake Snell and Jim Perry for the record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Despite this, Skenes made a significant achievement over the weekend by being selected to the National League All-Star team, becoming the fourth pitcher in MLB history to make the Midsummer Classic in each of his first three seasons, joining the ranks of Yu Darvish, Dwight Gooden, and Tom Seaver.
However, Skenes is unlikely to participate in the All-Star Game, as he is scheduled to pitch on Sunday against the Brewers. Before that, he will face the National League East-leading Braves on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV. This match against the Braves is particularly intriguing, as Skenes has faced them only once in his career, striking out nine in six innings on June 29, 2024, with only one run allowed, a home run by Jarred Kelenic.
The Braves' lineup includes second baseman Ozzie Albies, who is 1-for-2 with a single and a walk, and Matt Olson and Austin Riley, who are 0-for-3 and 1-for-3, respectively, with three strikeouts each. Interestingly, Skenes has yet to face Ronald Acuña Jr., who has been sidelined for nearly a month with a left hamstring strain. This absence from the Braves' lineup could provide Skenes with an opportunity to showcase his skills against a different set of batters.
One notable statistic is Skenes' offspeed run value, which was in the 100th percentile in all of baseball when he was a rookie. This mark slightly declined in 2025 but remained in the 98th percentile. However, this season, Skenes is in the 17th percentile for offspeed pitches, according to Baseball Savant. This decline in offspeed value could be a factor in his recent struggles, as it suggests a decrease in the effectiveness of his secondary pitches.
In his most recent start against the Phillies, Skenes allowed eight runs (seven earned) on two home runs in four innings, striking out five. This performance marked a noticeable change in multiple facets of his game. Skenes' fastball, which topped out at 101.9 mph just two years ago as a rookie, has now ranged from 93.6 mph to 97.9 mph. His average pitch speed has also decreased, with a combined total of four pitches at 98-plus mph in his last three starts, compared to averaging 26 98-plus mph pitches per outing in his first 55 MLB starts.
The spin rate on Skenes' four-seam fastball has also decreased significantly, moving from 2,318 on April 1 to 1,987 on July 1. This sudden change in his fastball, as Skenes himself noted postgame, remains a mystery. The decline in pitch speed and spin rate could be contributing factors to Skenes' recent struggles, as they indicate a loss of velocity and control on his pitches.
As Skenes prepares to face the Braves, the question remains whether he can turn his fortunes around. With a challenging lineup ahead of him, including the Braves' powerful hitters, Skenes will need to rely on his remaining strengths and make adjustments to regain his form. The upcoming match against the Braves will be a crucial test for Skenes, as he seeks to break his losing streak and reclaim his status as one of the MLB's top pitchers.
